清代东南亚国家贡象研究

清代东南亚国家有向中国进贡驯象的惯例。这些驯象进入中国境内后按照固定的线路行走,到达北京后,由清廷专设的驯象所进行管理。居住在宣武门内的象房里的大象,得到管理人员的精细照顾,主要被清廷当做礼仪大象使用。19世纪中后期,随着越南、缅甸被西方国家占领,东南亚国家停止了向中国进贡驯象。     

中国与东南亚:历史汇编和现实观照——《中国与东南亚》(六卷本)介评

本文对国际著名东南亚史专家韦德编辑的六卷本《中国与东南亚》的内容、目的、特点及其贡献等进行了简介和分析,并结合中国的东南亚研究状况提出了个人思考。     

Europe after the debt crisis

The Euro zone was caught unprepared by the financial crisis originating in the USA followed by the recession. Severe flaws in the designs hidden by the ??good?? years surfaced calling for action. After a good deal of fumbling, the Euro zone moves towards a fiscal union anchored in acceptance of a ??German?? economic model??low inflation, low deficits, and debts. The Euro will survive with two major changes. The integration will be stronger and the core countries in the Euro zone will exercise stronger leadership raising awkward policy decision for the skeptical members of the EU, but outside the Euro.     

Filling the Moral Void: The Christian Right in Singapore

In March 2009 a group of Anglican Pentecostal women took over the Association of Women for Action and Research, a secular women's rights group in Singapore. This sparked an intense month-long public debate over a variety of issues which included the increasing aggression of the “Christian Right,” the secular nature of public space in Singapore, sex education and tolerance for gay communities, culminating in state intervention. While conventional sociological studies have suggested a variety of explanations for the growing presence of Pentecostal Christians in the public sphere, such as religious stratification or their links to party politics, few have examined it within the framework of nation-building. This paper seeks to understand the recent emergence of the “Christian Right” and its exposition on various moral issues within a historical context – a context from which the People's Action Party government successfully arose, in part, due to its self-construction as a moral state, and argues that the post-industrial challenges of globalisation have forced the government to be less morally conservative, resulting in a perceived moral vacuum which certain segments of Pentecostal Christians have felt compelled to fill.     

机制拥堵还是大国协调——区域外大国与湄公河地区开发合作

湄公河地区具有重要的战略地位和资源禀赋,使得该地区长期以来一直是大国利益角逐的战场。近年来,美国、日本、印度、澳大利亚、俄罗斯、欧盟等区域外大国和地区组织对湄公河地区开发合作的积极参与,使得大国利益在该地区交汇重叠,相互竞争、博弈的局面在该地区激烈上演,呈现出合作"机制拥堵"的局面。这已经远远超出了湄公河地区的现实需求,不仅保障力度不够,且各机制之间彼此牵制,反而妨碍了该地区开展更加深入的开发合作,这对于一个欠发达地区来说并非幸事。如何协调各大国在湄公河地区的战略利益与重大关切,真正考虑湄公河国家的利益诉求,并提供地区公共产品,维护该地区的持久和平,促进本地区繁荣,成为中国深化湄公河地区开发合作过程中需要考虑的重要因素。中国可加强与区域外大国的战略对话和协调,以政治互信促安全合作,以安全合作促地区稳定,从而减轻区域外大国的掣肘。同时,中国也要站在更高和长远的立场,进一步明确和细化在湄公河地区的战略目标,避免对抗,坚持良性竞争。     

Informal democratization: brokers,access to public services and democratic accountability in Indonesia and India

This article compares the role of brokers in mediating access to public services in India and Indonesia. Brokered state-citizen interaction is generally considered to be detrimental to democratic accountability and governance. Yet recent studies are emphasizing that brokers can also be empowering. Reconciling these contrasting assessments, I argue in this paper that the character of brokerage networks shapes the capacity of citizens to hold their politicians and bureaucrats to account. Employing over two years of ethnographic fieldwork in both India and Indonesia, I develop a comparative framework that compares brokerage networks in terms of their degree of fragmentation, institutionalization and levelling. In Indonesia the versatile and more state-centered nature of brokers networks plays into the hands of incumbents, while the fragmented and more levelled nature of India's brokerage networks strengthens democratic accountability. I use this comparison to advance the argument that the evolution of brokerage networks constitutes an important, yet little-noticed dimension of democratization processes. When citizens gain access to public services through networks that are fragmented, institutionalized and less marked by social hierarchies, politicians and bureaucrats face stronger pressures to perform.     

Public management reform and lessons from experience in New Zealand

This article is edited from a speech delivered to the University of Victoria, Wellington—IPMN Workshop on the theme lessons from experience in New Zealand. The author articulates a number of lessons that have been learned, and identifies some lessons that should have been learned. Scott writes from the perspective of having been directly and centrally involved in the development and implementation of what has been characterized as “the New Zealand model” of public management for more than twenty years, a record of service that continues to date. The views expressed also benefit from extensive consulting by the author for governments around the world. Among the lessons learned are (a) the need for clarity of roles, responsibilities and accountability in the implementation of management reform, (b) the importance of matching decision capacity to responsibility, (c) the significance of ministerial commitment and clarity on expectations, (d) the advantages gained from structural innovations within the New Zealand cabinet, (e) the need to analyze disasters carefully for what they teach, (f) approaches to embrace and foibles to avoid in implementing performance specification, (g) problems caused by confusion over ownership and improper assessment of organizational capability, (h) the fact that actually doing strategic management in the public sector is hugely complicated, (i) that it is time to put an end to the notion that there is an “extreme model” of public management in application in New Zealand, and (j) that public management, government and governance innovations in New Zealand are no longer novel compared to those advanced in other nations. With respect to lessons not learned satisfactorily, many are simply the dark shadow of positive lessons, i.e., having not understood or implemented the successes achieved in some parts of New Zealand government into others. The author concludes with an admonition to avoid jumping too quickly, in response to post-electoral rhetoric, to the conclusion that past reforms in have to be modified quickly and radically, and that the New Zealand Model has failed.     

进攻性联盟、模糊性威慑与AUKUS的战略性扩张

2021年9月15日,美国、英国和澳大利亚建立三边安全伙伴关系(AUKUS)。美英澳三国基于追求权力最大化、改变既有国际秩序的扩张性动机,构建进攻性联盟。美国企图巩固印太地区霸权;英国试图提升印太地区影响力,推动“全球英国”构想;澳大利亚希图扩张在印太地区的威慑力,强化南太平洋区域强国地位。AUKUS的威慑功能具有模糊性,主要体现在威慑对象及触发条件的模糊性。其模糊性威慑主要包括模糊性威慑的信号功能、震慑功能、作战功能、信息和情报共享功能、军工合作功能。AUKUS通过模糊性威慑功能实现美国在印太地区的战略性扩张;威胁中国国家安全和阻挠中国统一进程;诱使印度深化与三国战略合作;引发东盟国家意见分歧;加速欧盟防务自主进程;削弱国际核不扩散机制,恶化地区安全形势,对全球及地区安全局势产生消极影响。     

菲律宾政治集团在南海问题上的共识、分歧及成因

菲律宾国内各政治集团对菲律宾南海政策的制定产生程度不一的影响。基于维护本国利益的国家本位意识和立场,菲律宾各政治集团在南海问题上的共识有:坚持菲律宾所占据的南海岛礁的“主权”;要求以《联合国海洋法公约》为依据来解决南海争端;坚持南海仲裁“裁决”,等等。而硬实力的不足、美国安全承诺的不确定、中国在南海问题上的克制与和平立场以及菲律宾民情等因素导致菲律宾各政治集团在一定程度上达成通过和平方式解决南海问题的共识。除了对策略手段运用的不同理解导致的分歧,菲律宾各政治集团在南海问题上的分歧主要体现在对于菲美同盟及菲美双边军事协议存在着认同与强烈反对的不同声音,其深层原因来自于要求独立自主的反美民族主义与菲律宾国家安全需要之间的矛盾。菲律宾后续仍可能试图以南海“仲裁”结果对中国进行“软”抗争;菲美军事安全合作仍有强化的可能;中菲南海双边谈判以及共同开发协议有可能会随着菲律宾国内政治形势的变动而受到影响,存在较大变数。     

陆权与清代“海禁”政策

清代前期实行的海禁政策包括移民限制、物品出口限制、外商来华贸易规定以及民船建造规格等多项内容。这种海禁政策的性质并非惯常认定的"闭关锁国",而是中国传统陆权战略的一部分,其制定具有深刻的历史背景。清代海禁政策在当时的条件下,取得了重大成效,但鸦片战争之后,随着世界形势的剧变,这种战略尽显弊端。